Seismic Hazard Analysis of China’s Mainland Based on a New Seismicity Model

Abstract Based on the seismic source model in Fifth Generation Seismic Ground Motion Parameters Zonation Map of China (FGSGMPZMC), a new fault model, zonation risk areas (SRAs), and estimation seismicity rates for 2021–2030, this study constructed time-dependent China’s mainland, used probabilistic hazard analysis method to calculate by selecting ground motion models (GMMs) suitable sources China. It also provided probabilities mainland being affected earthquakes modified Mercalli intensity (MMI) VI, VII, VIII, IX, ≥ X 2021–2030. The spatial pattern hazards presented article is similar FGSGMPZMC, but shows more details. are higher than those FGSGMPZMC SRAs zones that can produce large earthquakes. This indicates construction scientific reasonable. There certain similarities between results Rong et al. (2020) Feng (2020), disparities specific sites due differences models, parameters, GMMs. may serve as parameter input future assessments. be basis formulation earthquake prevention mitigation policies mainland.